All change this season? No chance.

Nothing is certain except death and taxes’. Benjamin Franklin 1789. Not quite true though is it? If Franklin had been alive today he would’ve almost certainly added ‘and relegation for clubs coming up from the Championship’.

As we know, for the past two seasons all three promoted clubs have gone straight back. This is a joyous scenario for American PL owners, who never got the concept of relegation when they bought into our league and now they’ve got what they wanted. No relegation.

I know Burnley are American owned. And Leeds. And if by some minor miracle either could avoid the drop this season they might just re-establish themselves in the big league. But it’s a big ask. The rest can relax. They’re not going down. It’s sad really. The league has become so predictable.

If Scott Parker has learned nothing from his previous spells in the PL, Burnley already know their fate. So do Sunderland. I’m giving Leeds a chance for a number of reasons. The first is Brentford, but I’ll get back to that. On the field, they might just be able to muster enough points at Elland Road to survive. It’s a hostile place to go and should give them a platform to work from. I like that Farke has been buying ‘big’. He’s got giants in his team now, realising set-pieces at both ends are so important.

Having said I like their transfer business, I really don’t get Calvert-Lewin. When he came on the scene at Everton I really thought he could be a player. I still think he should’ve been, but it’s all a bit late now. And is he better than Bamford? Does he stay fitter than Bamford? For me, the answers to those questions are ‘no’ and ‘no’. Odd. All very odd.

Now.  Brentford. They could easily go. Too much has happened there during the summer and none of it has been good. The manager has gone. So too the captain. And the front two. All influential characters and they’ll be missed. And I really don’t understand the appointment of Keith Andrews. Why? What on earth has he kept a secret all this time that persuaded Matthew Benham to give him the job? I haven’t seen it. I don’t think anybody has.

So there’s my three to go - Burnley, Sunderland and Leeds/Brentford.

What about the top? I like what Liverpool have done in the summer. And they’re not done yet are they? I’m pretty sure Isak will turn up at Anfield before the window shuts.

The big spend tells me I was correct last season when I described them as ‘average’ champions. I also said they wouldn’t win anything this season with the same players. Of course they deserved to win it, but the rest all went backwards.

It won’t be like that this time. The challengers are all better.

Liverpool should win it. Should, but I’m not sure they will. I’ve for a fancy for Arsenal. If Gyokeres proves to be the missing piece then they will win it.

Everybody knows I like him. He’s got the lot - two good feet, he can head the ball and he’s fantastic when he’s running away from people. But that might be the key. Arsenal are going to have to change to get the best out of him.

They need raiding full-backs, not an inverted Lewis-Skelley. They need to be quicker back to front and they’ve got to be prepared to turn the ball over more quickly as well. We’ll see, but I repeat, this might just be their year.

That would give Liverpool second place. I think it’s either City or Chelsea for third and fourth. And we’ve got a fifth CL place haven’t we? That’s Villa’s.

Manchester United have got to be better. If they aren’t Amorim won’t finish the season. I’ve said so many times now - the PL needs a strong United, so it would be great to see them back in the top 6.

I can’t work out what’s happening at Newcastle. On the face of it, the Saudi’s seem to have lost interest. Why else would they accommodate Liverpool’s needs and buy Nunez for their Pro League thereby funding the champions bid for Isak?

They helped Chelsea nick Delap and Joao Pedro by backing the Club World Cup and softening the impact of PSR regulations at The Bridge. Newcastle would’ve taken either/or player. I can’t work out the strategy.

Anyway, I’m sure the Toon will be good enough to chase a euro place - and so will Spurs. I like Thomas Frank and I liked more the way his team played v Paris the other night. The first goal was right out of the Brentford playbook - the keeper taking a fk on the half-way line, lofting it to the far post - Spurs kept the ball alive and scored. The second was from a set-piece as well, although the new Paris keeper was useless for that one. Spurs know they should’ve won it, but let’s hope Frank is the man they’ve been looking for.

Nibbling away will be Brighton, Bournemouth, Palace, Forest and Fulham. I’d expect more of Wolves and I hope Everton. The new stadium should serve them well and if they’ve signed the real Jack Grealish then they’ve done really good business. If Grealish delivers he’ll be an instant hit. He’s what Evertonians love.

So that leaves West Ham. 🤷‍♂️.

Ive got a couple of wishes - that refs are better. We’ve got bang ordinary officials and when Howard Webb claimed VAR errors were down from 31 to 18 last season I had to laugh. The PGMOL are still marking their own homework. It’s wrong. Webb needs to be more honest as well - especially with himself.

And after watching Paris, Barca - Spain at the last euros - and to some degree Liverpool and Bayern, I really hope we’re moving away from the deadly dull tippy-tappy era. Those teams play with energy and pace. Paris were breathtaking in the CL final. Please - let’s see more of it.

If you live in my part of the world I’ll see you on beINSPORTS all weekend. Andy and I are about to start our 36th season of PL coverage together. It’s 39 of you include our time at the original BSB. What a run we’ve had. And now we’re the last men standing. That’s a source of huge pride to me.

We’ll be offering the usual mix of grown up chat for adults with the football. Every PL game is live on our channels and we’ll still be showing goals as they’re scored. Enjoy.